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Dakota Dunes, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles S North Sioux City SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles S North Sioux City SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Sioux Falls, SD |
| Updated: 12:01 pm CDT May 14, 2025 |
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This
Afternoon
Mostly Sunny
and Breezy
|
Tonight
Slight Chance
T-storms and
Breezy then
Severe
T-Storms
|
Thursday
Severe
T-Storms
and Windy
|
Thursday
Night
Breezy.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Slight Chance
Showers
|
Friday
Chance
Showers and
Windy
|
Friday
Night
Slight Chance
Showers and
Breezy then
Mostly Cloudy
|
Saturday
Mostly Sunny
|
Saturday
Night
Partly Cloudy
|
Sunday
Partly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
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| Hi 92 °F |
Lo 60 °F |
Hi 73 °F |
Lo 52 °F |
Hi 68 °F |
Lo 45 °F |
Hi 70 °F |
Lo 43 °F |
Hi 72 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
This Afternoon
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Tonight
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Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 60. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Thursday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Windy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west 25 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Thursday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Friday
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A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. |
Friday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. |
Saturday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. |
Sunday
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A 30 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. |
Sunday Night
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Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Monday
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Showers. High near 75. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Monday Night
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Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Tuesday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles S North Sioux City SD.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
415
FXUS63 KUNR 141133
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
533 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight risk of severe thunderstorms over south-central SD this
afternoon/evening
- Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph possible Thursday on the western
SD plains
- Strong storm system brings more chances for beneficial
precipitation early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025
08z surface analysis had cold front from eastern ND through
western NE connected to a low over far southwest NE. Water vapour
loop had upper trough from MT into NV with 100kt jet streak on the
front edge which was assisting convection over the CWA early this
morning per KUDX WSR-88D. Early morning SPC mesoanalysis had
~1KJ/kg MUCAPE/40kt effective bulk shear, which has been
sufficient for isolated strong/marginally severe storms. Expect
activity to continue northeast overnight and slowly weaken.
Attention then turns to upper trough and resultant surface low.
Today/tonight, jet streak on leading edge of upper trough creates
a compact upper low over the CWA by 12z Thursday. Southwest NE
low deepens as it moves along cold front and occludes. This will
tighten frontal boundary this afternoon, pulling up upper 50s Td/s
into south-central SD with 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE/increasing 0-6km bulk
shear (35-40kts). Per CAMs, this should be sufficient for a line
of thunderstorms with embedded severe thunderstorms over south-
central SD later in the afternoon/early evening, quickly moving
away from the CWA. Large hail/damaging wind will be the main
threat. Further west, less robust convection expected with low
confidence on where it will occur/QPF amounts. PWATs increase to
150-200% of normal along cold front, which may be sufficient for
locally heavy rainfall over an area of D1-2 drought. Temperatures
will be tricky today/tonight, so didn`t stray from guidance.
Thursday, tight pressure gradient as stacked low over eastern ND
spins. Backwash moisture will support PoPs over the CWA, but QPF
amounts look relatively light except near the ND border. 800-700mb
mean wind 40-60kts with forecast soundings/MOS guidance pointing
toward the potential for wind gusts in excess of 50kts. NBM has
50-80% chance of >55 MPH wind gusts. Have hoisted High Wind Watch
to account. Temperatures will be seasonal.
Friday/Saturday, a couple of shortwave troughs/ridges move
through as upper trough is carved out over the Rockies. Fleeting
convection is possible. Deep southwest flow Sunday ahead of upper
trough and then strong upper trough/low moves over the CWA
Monday/Tuesday. Significant/highly welcome QPF is looking more
probable (Sunday through Tuesday) along with the potential for
active convection ahead of the upper low and the potential for
snow behind it over the higher elevations. EFI shift of tails for
snow has values as high as 5, which suggests some members are
giving significant snow for parts of the CWA. Current forecast
isn`t that aggressive and impacts will probably be minor, but
something to watch.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 530 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025
MVFR/IFR CIGS will prevail over northeastern WY/far western SD
most of the forecast period. Leftover TSRA with local MVFR/IFR
conditions over western SD will dissipate this morning. TSRA will
then redevelop east of the Black Hills over central SD, some of
which will contain hail, strong gusty erratic winds, and IFR
conditions. Inbetween and outside of TSRA, VFR conditions this
morning will give way to MVFR/IFR conditions later tonight.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-031-032-043-044-046-047-072-073-
077-078.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
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